Queensland Political Climate: Brisbane Voters Show Limited Support for Premier Crisafulli After One Year in Office
As Premier David Crisafulli marks his first year in office, recent polling indicates that his government has yet to secure a meaningful foothold within Brisbane’s electorate. Despite significant efforts to address youth crime and undertake infrastructure projects related to Labor’s 2032 Olympics ambitions, voter support in key metropolitan areas remains lukewarm, signaling potential challenges ahead for the Liberal National Party (LNP) in future elections.
A comprehensive survey conducted by Redbridge and Accent Polling, involving 1,013 voters across South East Queensland, reveals that Labor maintains a modest lead over the LNP on a two-party-preferred basis—52% to 48%. This data emerges amidst a politically evolving landscape, just five months after the federal Labor government achieved a decisive victory, particularly with gains in Brisbane’s inner city and outer suburban districts.
In the heart of Brisbane, the LNP’s support is notably weaker. The poll shows Labor holding a primary vote of 38%, compared to the LNP’s 34%. Preferences from third parties, including the Greens at 14%, tilt the balance further in favor of Labor, resulting in a 54% to 46% preference lead. Similar trends persist in Brisbane’s outer suburbs, where Labor’s two-party preferred vote stands at 53%, while the LNP trails at 47%.
The recent electoral results underscore these challenges. The LNP failed to secure anticipated seats such as Aspley, Pine Rivers, and Macalister during the 2024 state election, highlighting the depth of the party’s difficulties in broadening its appeal within Brisbane. Experts warn that if current trends persist, the city could become increasingly dominated by Labor, aligning with the recent federal electoral shifts that saw Labor capture several traditionally conservative seats, including Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson.
Kos Samaras, Director at Redbridge, emphasized the urgent need for the LNP to bolster its standing in Brisbane if it hopes to remain competitive in 2028. He noted that the LNP’s two-party-preferred vote has declined from approximately 50.3% at the last election to around 48%. This decline correlates with a rise in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON), which has doubled its primary vote share in South East Queensland—raising concerns about shifting voter allegiances.
The polling also reveals demographic dynamics affecting voting patterns. While the LNP retains stronger support among older voters, such as baby boomers (born before 1964), with about 63% favoring the party, Gen Z voters (aged 18-28) predominantly back Labor—about 70%. This generational divide indicates a potential long-term challenge for conservative parties unless strategies are adapted to engage younger voters.
Premier Crisafulli’s tenure has been characterized by a focus on regional Queensland, where he enjoyed strong support during the election. However, his efforts have yet to translate into significant gains within Brisbane’s inner city and outer suburbs. Initiatives such as overhauling the Olympics infrastructure plan—delivering new stadiums and facilities—and addressing youth crime have been headline priorities. Yet, pressing issues remain unresolved, including ambulance ramping and housing affordability.
While on the policy front, Crisafulli has taken distinct stances diverging from the federal Coalition, particularly on climate issues like net-zero commitments and nuclear energy. His government has also advanced infrastructure projects, such as a new indoor arena next to the Gabba and upgrades to the RNA Showgrounds, aiming to bolster urban development and economy.
Critics, including Opposition Leader Steven Miles, have raised concerns over the government’s integrity, citing allegations of cronyism and the need for transparent governance. Additionally, recent policy announcements, such as the Energy Road Map—a gas-driven transition to renewables—are under scrutiny amid ongoing debates about energy security and environmental sustainability.
In summary, the current political landscape in Brisbane presents a complex picture for Queensland’s government. While regional support remains robust, the city’s electorate continues to lean toward Labor, posing strategic questions for the LNP as it prepares for the next electoral cycle. The evolving demographic and political trends highlight the importance of engaging younger voters and addressing urban issues to secure a sustainable majority in future state polls.
