Queensland Political Landscape Sees Shift as Minor Parties and Independents Gain Ground
Recent polling data reveals a notable decline in support for the Queensland Liberal National Party (LNP), marking its lowest level in 18 months since returning to government. Over the past two months, the LNP’s primary vote has dropped to 30%, according to Resolve Strategic surveys—the lowest figure recorded in recent years.
This decrease represents a four-percentage-point fall since February’s survey, coinciding with a sustained support level for One Nation at 17%, positioning the third-party as a significant contender in the state’s political arena. Meanwhile, the Labor opposition continues to struggle with primary support hovering below 30%, with combined support for all minor parties and independents reaching as high as 43%.
Despite these shifting poll numbers, Premier David Crisafulli maintains a robust personal approval rating, standing at +19 and holding a significant lead over Labor leader Steven Miles as preferred Premier, with 42% backing Crisafulli. By contrast, Miles has seen his personal rating decline to its lowest point since losing government in October 2024, now at -5, with only 26% of respondents preferring him as Premier.
Jim Reed, Director of Resolve Strategic, commented on these dynamics, noting that the rise of One Nation in Queensland appears to be a unique phenomenon compared to other states. “While Hanson’s influence is well established nationally, it’s unusual that One Nation hasn’t surpassed the 20% support threshold in her home state. Queensland’s current political environment is bolstered by the fact that the Coalition remains in power here, offering less impetus for right-of-centre voters to rally behind alternative parties. Interestingly, One Nation has attracted votes from both major parties, including Labor, indicating broader dissatisfaction with the current policies.”
The survey was conducted in two phases—March 8 to 14 and April 13 to 18—covering 870 voters with a margin of error of 3%. These insights came at a pivotal moment, just before the start of official campaigning for the Stafford by-election in Brisbane’s north. The by-election, triggered by the death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan—who was expelled from Labor last year—serves as an important test for Miles, with party insiders already expressing concerns about a poor result or loss.
Labor’s campaign has emphasized affordability, while the LNP has intensified rhetoric around fuel security and calls for federal assistance to revitalise Queensland’s oil industry. The polling period coincided with the passage of contentious legislation in response to recent tragic events. Notably, laws banning protests with certain pro-Palestine phrases have attracted criticism for their perceived overreach and have been associated with arrests and police action. Additionally, there has been pressure to review mental health screening for firearm license applicants, following a coronial inquest into the Wieambilla shooting.
Other recent policy initiatives by the government include attempts to regulate e-mobility devices better, repeal the state’s three-strike drug diversion scheme, and expand police powers for crowd control and public safety. Tensions within the government have also been visible, with some figures engaging in disputes with unions amid ongoing disruptions and negotiations.
As Queensland’s political landscape continues to evolve, the rise of minor parties and independent candidates reflects a broader shift in voter sentiment, driven by policy debates, recent legislation, and the public’s response to government priorities and controversies. The upcoming by-election results and subsequent polling will provide further insight into the direction of Queensland politics in the months ahead.
