Queensland Voter Support Shifts as Opposition Gains Ground and Government Faces Challenges
In the wake of recent polling data, the political landscape in Queensland has experienced notable changes, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment less than a year after the state’s most recent election. A two-month survey conducted by Resolve Strategic for Brisbane Times reveals a significant decline in primary support for the Liberal National Party (LNP), alongside a resurgence of Labor’s opposition leader, Steven Miles. These developments come ahead of the parliament’s return for its first regular sitting since the government’s inaugural budget.
Key Findings from the Poll
The survey, which sampled 869 Queensland voters across July and August, indicates that support for the LNP has decreased by 11 percentage points since the post-election high earlier this year, dropping from 45% to 34%. Conversely, Labor’s support has risen from 22% to 32%, suggesting a strengthening of the opposition’s position ahead of future electoral considerations.
While Premier David Crisafulli maintains a steady personal approval rating—currently at 40%—Miles has seen a notable increase, edging into near-positive territory with an approval of 25%. This dynamic positions Miles as a more favored preferred premier compared to Crisafulli, who holds a 40% preference among voters.
Public Perception on Key Issues
Voters’ assessments of government performance across pivotal areas reveal growing dissatisfaction, particularly concerning housing affordability and infrastructure development. Housing remains the issue most negatively regarded; 46% of respondents rated the government’s efforts on this front as poor, a significant concern given the preceding government’s focus on housing crises and land release strategies.
Management of hospitals also drew mixed responses, with 39% rating the government’s efforts as good, but 33% perceiving them as poor. The survey highlights a broader trend of public apprehension about the state’s future, with more participants predicting worsening conditions over the coming year. Notably, however, the intensity of this pessimism has diminished slightly, as more respondents now believe their personal circumstances will remain unchanged.
Implications and Future Outlook
This poll arrives at a critical juncture for Queensland politics, as the government approaches the one-year milestone in office and prepares for the next state election scheduled for October 2028. Although support for the LNP has waned, Premier Crisafulli’s personal ratings suggest stability in leadership approval, offering a foundation to rebuild voter trust.
The government has taken some steps toward addressing housing concerns by collaborating with local councils to develop greenfield sites and streamline land availability. However, opposition from local communities and certain project blockades have impacted efforts, underscoring ongoing challenges in balancing development and community priorities.
Expert Analysis
Jim Reed, Director of Resolve Strategic, emphasizes that the recent shift in voter support signals a more competitive political environment for the LNP. “Crisafulli’s favorable personal ratings are still strong compared to Miles,” Reed notes, “but the data indicates the government is effectively ending its ‚honeymoon‘ period, with the federal political landscape playing a role in shaping public perception.”
Looking Ahead
As Queensland Parliament prepares for its upcoming session, political parties will closely monitor these shifting support trends. The three-day annual convention of the LNP, beginning this Friday, will serve as a platform for party strategizing and candidate positioning ahead of future elections.
The evolving voter sentiment underscores the importance for the government to address pressing issues such as housing and healthcare proactively, while opposition parties may seize on areas of dissatisfaction to strengthen their messaging as the next election approaches.
Note: An earlier report misstated the decline in the LNP’s support as nearly 10 percentage points; the correct figure is an 11-point decrease.
